Fire Scar Analysis Simulator: Wildfire History from Tree Rings

simulator intermediate ~10 min
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MFI = 12 yr — ~21 fire events over 250 years

With a mean fire interval of 12 years over a 250-year span, approximately 21 fire years are expected. With 10 trees each having 60% scar probability, the composite fire chronology captures the full fire regime.

Formula

MFI = Σ(intervals) / (number of intervals)
Weibull: f(x) = (c/b) × (x/b)^(c-1) × exp(-(x/b)^c)
Composite % scarred = (trees scarred / trees recording) × 100

Fire Written in Wood

Wildfire leaves indelible marks in the tree-ring record. When surface fire burns through a forest, it wounds susceptible trees, killing a patch of cambium and creating a 'catface' scar. As the tree heals, new annual rings grow over the wound, encapsulating the scar with a precise date — the year and even the season of the fire. By crossdating fire scars from multiple trees across a landscape, scientists reconstruct fire histories spanning centuries.

Composite Fire Chronologies

A single tree records only fires intense enough to scar it, and not every fire scars every tree. By combining scar records from many trees into a composite chronology, researchers detect the full range of fire events. A fire year is defined when a threshold percentage (commonly 10-25%) of recording trees show scars. This filter separates widespread fires from localized events.

Fire Interval Statistics

The intervals between successive fires follow statistical distributions — typically Weibull rather than normal. The mean fire interval (MFI), median fire interval, and Weibull parameters characterize the fire regime. Short MFI with low variability indicates a regular, climate-driven fire cycle. Long MFI with high variability suggests stochastic fire occurrence dependent on rare ignition-fuel-weather conjunctions.

Fire Suppression & Changing Regimes

Fire-scar records across western North America show a dramatic pattern: frequent fires every 5-25 years for centuries, then an abrupt cessation around 1880-1910 coinciding with livestock grazing (which removed fine fuels) and organized fire suppression. The resulting fuel accumulation has transformed formerly resilient surface-fire forests into landscapes prone to catastrophic crown fires — a legacy that drives modern wildfire management policy.

FAQ

How do fire scars form in trees?

When a surface fire burns through a forest, it kills the cambium on one side of susceptible trees, creating a wound. The tree heals over the wound with new growth, but the scar is preserved internally. Each subsequent fire can reopen and extend the scar, creating a datable record of multiple fire events in a single tree.

What is the mean fire interval (MFI)?

MFI is the average number of years between consecutive fires at a site, computed from fire-scar dated fire years. A composite MFI uses all scarred trees; a point MFI uses individual trees. Composite MFI is always shorter because more trees detect more fires.

How did fire suppression change fire regimes?

In many western North American forests, fire-scar records show frequent fires (every 5-15 years) before ~1900, followed by a sharp cessation coinciding with organized fire suppression. This has led to fuel accumulation and the increase in severe crown fires seen today.

What is the Weibull distribution in fire history?

Fire intervals often follow a Weibull distribution rather than a normal distribution. The shape parameter indicates whether fires are random (shape ≈ 1), increasingly likely with time since last fire (shape > 1), or decreasingly likely (shape < 1). Most surface-fire regimes show shape parameters between 1.5 and 3.

Sources

Embed

<iframe src="https://homo-deus.com/lab/dendrochronology/fire-scar/embed" width="100%" height="400" frameborder="0"></iframe>
View source on GitHub